Hi Marc, Glenn and Gordo,
People often write in to say that they’ve started to take their punting more seriously, want to frame their own markets and ask what advice can you give.
It’s actually a very hard question for you guys to answer because you don’t know what skills the person asking actually possesses.
Are they very good at maths? Can they program? Where are they on the knowledge/ability ladder?
Your answers also assume that they have some basic knowledge of markets such as what does it actually mean to frame a market to 100%? I’m not so sure that most punters who ask the question actually know.
I was reminded today of how I started doing things, which over time got combined with my computerised rating to become the computerised price that I work with these days.
Sunshine Coast race 1 was a 6 horse race and I’ve had a place bet on Little Miss Monaco. You could get $101 at the jump and it was easily the rank outsider in the field with the next best runner being $15. The horse ran 4th and I happened to be with a mate at the time who commented on what a hopeless bet it was and what did I expect at those odds? I pointed out that the horse was 6th ranked in the market but had finished 4th, which was the reminder of how I started approaching pricing way, way back in time.
Without first looking at the market I went through a meeting and ranked each horse in each race into what I thought would be the correct market order. I then looked at the pre-post market and added the market rank next to my ranking. Once the race was run I added SP rank and, finally, finishing position.
I kept the results in a spreadsheet and the improvement I made was obvious after just a few months in terms of my ranking getting closer to SP and finishing ranking. Getting that right obviously allows you to identify horses that will firm, which then creates a profit opportunity.
If you can’t create a market order that is reasonably close to the SP market order often enough then you are almost no hope of moving to the next stage and creating a profitable price.
It was a good way to start and it’s something that those who want to improve their punting can do regardless of their maths ability, programming talent, or ability to read a race etc.
Keep up the good work!