Perhaps it's because of the changing nature of Australia's wagering landscape that the age old theory of beating SP will automatically make you a winner punting has started to be questioned on various social channels.
People that say 'beating SP is a myth' are saying that they often take overs and it hasn't really been helpful. Perhaps what they are also saying is that their 'blowers' (horses that they back that ease in betting) have just as good a record as those that firm.
No one has produced any data to back that theory up until I came across this tweet from long time Ranter Jack Zuber earlier in the week.
@cotchinsoda @Gamblor_PCO Quick BSP study. Bin sizes much bigger so the OSP filter (only one available on PF) captured BSP properly. Obviously this induces uncertainty, however BSP > OSP & (rough) expectation of 2020 being worse but not out of the bounds of variance were met. pic.twitter.com/HPW8Adwdwd
— Jack Zuber (@JZed9) July 17, 2020
When I question Jack he said that although his data says the opposite he is not convinced that beating the SP is a myth just yet.
"I tend to disagree with those who constantly knock it. It’s a distillation of a lot of knowledge and I don’t think so many people can be so much smarter than everyone else."
I've tried to list a few reasons off the top of my head why modern day SP's could be 'weaker' than in the past.
1. The bookies are quick to firm runners off little to no money
2. More tipping services than ever before and the bookies know they can lay runners 'at any price' if it's been tipped
2. More tipping services than ever before and the bookies know they can lay runners 'at any price' if it's been tipped
3. Bookies (online) are not given much leeway by management to push back on runners even if they believe said runners have become over bet?
4. The new rules surrounding official SP's have changed given the corp bookies more control and often not a fair reflection of what was actually available at jump in the market place
Some of the above theories may be floored but we're just throwing some idea's out there for now.
SP vs BSP
What I was able to do was have a look at SP vs Betfair Starting Price on a few systems from my Ratings 2 Win database with each bet to collect $1,000.
Bets POT P&L
SP 1,506 -6.1% -$20,730
BSP 1,506 +3.7% +$12,444
The BSP figures include an average of 3% commission taken out for winning bets. It's +6.9% set at zero com.
So while the SP v BSP comparison does not answer our question about beating SP it does highlight where the current SP figure is at for punters who use it as a measurement to the 'quality' of their bets.
I'd love to pull together some more data from our members and fans in the coming weeks that actually bed down how their bets go when they bet SP and how they go when they don't beat SP.
My early prediction is that those who 'systematise' their bets will be more reliant on beating SP as to those who are able to put time, effort and manual judgement into their bets - the 'specialists' if you will. Lets see.
Write into us or tweet us your theories on beating SP and what are the right measurements to use moving forward and we'll present them in part 2 of this study with hopefully some solid conclusions...
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