This week I’d thought I’d chat to the Rant team about their approaches to staking. Marc, Glenn and Gord are three totally different personalities and their approaches to staking confirms it.
This is an interesting one for me. I used to bet to collect a certain amount - let’s use $500 as an example. But since spending more time with Gord, the introduction of POC tax therefore bookies weighting their prices to the pointy end of the market I would now suggest betting ‘to win’ (profit) the $500. Obviously its really important to get the right odds because you are saving money on your losing bets so I would suggest to most people betting late on the fair is the best way to approach your business. .
This is one area of the game that I probably shouldn’t be giving anyone advise on! I could spend years upon years with a small bank and then I’ll run into some money and take all of it to the track!
Honestly, I used to take 100K in cash to the track in a Woolworths bag. Money to me is just something you bet with. I once ran into 600K in cash and two and a half weeks later I was broke.
But if I had to tell you my advice to staking its this: It’s the “I’m always looking to kick” approach.
If I had a 2K bank for example I reckon at least 25% of my bank would be invested on race 1. Depending what happens after race 1 I’m chipping up or down with the idea of looking to kick as the day goes on. I’m well prepared to have to borrow $20 to get home.
Two quotes from the Glennsta to staking:
“Always put yourself under super pressure, all the time”.
“Always bet beyond your means”.
Notes from the author: This advice is not for everyone (anyone, except for Glenn) Please gamble responsibly.
Some people bet to collect a certain amount but I bet to win an amount. My bet size varies from 20 units (big bet) to 1 unit (small bet)
- Big bets always have to be ‘go forward’ types
- Small bets are generally roughies say 50-1 that obviously I don’t have favourite but think they are value.
Let’s say 5K is the amount you are betting to win on the pointy end of the markets, well, I’d probably bet to win up to 10K on things that are a bigger price like $8 and up I really like them. If its just a good bet then I suggest the 5K for normal bets where the market has found them too.
As Marc mentioned, the key to any good staking plan I believe starts with backing the right horse at the right time. Once you think you have a handle on that I’d suggest
- looking to win (profit) around 4% of your total punting bank based on what you have assessed a horse, not what the market is. e.g. You price a horse evens and its currently $3 I would calculate your outlay based on the evens not the $3.
- I’d suggest setting a max outlay amount of say 2-3% depending on the size of your bank and / or ability to stomach big losses, let’s call this your ‘tilt factor’.
I believe this has a good portion of the ‘Kelly criterion’ model which is designed to maximise opportunities when the odds are on your side (aka value).
So who’s method suits your punting style best?
Matt and the Rant team.