Appropriately itself the regular punting in Australia for generations was one simple action pick a winner. You looked over the form guide saw your horse and then backed it to win. However, the arrival of Betfair shook things up and enabled the common man to do something beyond what traditional bookies offered lay betting.
Put simply, lay betting is betting on something not to happen. Friday Night Moonee Valley Lay If you lay a horse in a Friday night Moonee Valley race, you collect on your bet if any other horse wins the race. You are, in effect, the house, wagering (someone else's money on a prediction you believe to be incorrect.
Central Aspect: Backers vs. Layers
Betfair is a peer-to-peer betting exchange where you can get bets your own prices unlike by the big corporate bookmakers who set their own markets. That means you are coming up against other Aussie punters head-to-head.
The Backer : (B)ets on the outcome to occur (see blue boxes in Betfair).
The Layer : Pinks on the boxes for Betfair : BETS ON AN outcome NOT to happen.
So, your stake if it is a lay bet, is simply how much money you want to win from the backer. But, since you are acting as the bookie in this case, you also must know what your liability is – how much you owe if the horse wins (you must pay out).
The Liability Formula: Liability"="Backer's Stake"×("Lay Odds" -1)
So, when you back a favourite at $2.50 with a $20 bet, your liability is ($20 x 1.5 = $30). When a favourite goes down you claim the backer for $20 dollars. If it wins, you lose $30.
Pro Strategies for Lay Betting
The pink side of the screen requires changing your punting mindset. Professional exchange traders never lay a horse at monstrous odds because if you do, a two-horse and the liability and erase your bankroll almost immediately. Successful lay betting, however, requires finding certain market inefficiencies not just any old one.
Attacking Overvalued Favourites
And the lay opportunities that provide the best returns for the traders who get involved, come when the public instigate a so-called "hype horse." A textbook lay opportunity is a runner that opens at short odds on the back of their popular jockey or impressive last start win, but your form analysis shows they have an awkward barrier drawn somewhere near you.
Live In-Play Tactics
Betfair allows you to trade until the very last moment at the winning post. Professional punters are closely watching live races for early signs of distress. If then, you have an over-backed ‘leader' in staying race that is really tested between the 2 mile and 1-mile posts and starts to look like they are going to be put under pressure from horses behind; or if a terminally layer odds on favourite looks quickly exposed with no obvious form ahead of them as the field approaches 20 furlongs.
Elevate Your Form Analysis
Spotting these inefficiencies involves world-class intelligence and deep data. To identify where the wrong fancies will be supported before the rest of the market catches wind be in tune with those on top.
This is where Racing Rant steps in. First up in your way, RacingRant is Australia's only free independent racing forum dedicated to the hardcore punter looking for pure unadulterated form analysis, mounting yard reports and horse by horse breakdowns that slice through the corporate bookie bull. Be it a favourite who has been overpriced as you seek for hidden value to back or a popular one to lay on the exchange, these expert community and elite betting insights give you that prod of sharp edge which will help you stay right and profiting.
Managing Your Risk
The golden rule of lay betting is never taking your eyes off your exposure. It is extremely enjoyable when you see a horse you laid fade into the pack, but if your bankroll management is bad then one performance can certainly be costly at these odds.
Never click submit till you work out your liability, be disciplined and always have daily loss limits treat the exchange like the stock market, other winning strategies follow Pay for Order Flow/Front Running, but discipline always beats emotion.
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