In no way is this a brag. I MISSED IT TOO!
This is merely a reminder / public service announcement heading into the weekends wagering.
Last Saturday Miss Einstein in Race 6 at Randwick was touted by a large number of form analysts and punters. Our preview team were in the majority keen on the runner although Marc did warn viewers perhaps she had "missed her chance" last time. She opened up around $5.50 (less 15c ded) in early markets and eventually SP'd a very firm $2.70.
The replay of her start leading into the race can be found here. Even blind Freddie couldn't miss the bad squeeze she copped when trying to close through the middle. For me where it get's interesting is looking at SP's from that race.
The key take out which most of us have overlooked here is that we "the market" had assessed both Miss Einstein and Opacity as equal chances to win the race despite the fact that Opacity was first up vs Miss Einstein would had an extra run under her belt.
When the two horses clashed last weekend we were mesmerised by the severe check Miss Einstein received and we pretty much forgot about Opacity who really had done a good job finishing so close to the placegetters. Sure Miss Einstein was unlucky but regardless of her getting that run Opacity would have been close enough to say she could be right there next start.
Here's the SP next start when Opacity turned the tables at $13 SP.
There is no doubt an argument to be made that those who jumped in early on Miss Einstein had done a good job in securing 'overs'. But for the majority who do their betting on race day the $3 that was available was unders when you compare it with the $13 Opacity for 'as much as you like' at the back end of betting. We "the market" outsmarted ourselves next time around. It's the beauty of using SP's to guide your selection process. What I'm saying is that they're not 100% accurate but should never be discarded either.
As the boys always say on the Monday Review Show hindsight is a wonderful thing however I thought this was a great reminder to all of us who take our form seriously to not be mesmerised / blinded by the flashy play and lose track of the undervalued skill of critical thinking and unbiased analysis.