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Our keen panellist Gordo has combed the Randwick card for Saturday, and has discerned the following:

Race 1 – 2YR OLD 1100m

1. Taking Aim
   • Right Stable
   • Like the Jockey Change
   • Like the wide barrier, horse needs space
   • Last start, steadied of heels, looms like a good horse, then seemed to struggle with the tight turn at Gosford, think coming home to Randwick circuit will suit, when balanced in straight was strong late
2. Menari
   • Won both 900m trials impressively, but nothing impressive about times or style
3. Momentum to Win
   • Trials not good enough for this stable to win this race
4. Newburgh
   • ? Tricky stable, recent trial to prime interesting
5. Piracy
   • Flopped only start but had excuses
   • Trials indicate has ability
   • Most recent trail impressive an indicates to me has 2 covered (trialled on same day)

Race 2 – 1200m (78) (F&M)

1. Butterboom
   • Fifth start this prep, like the quick backup
   • Will be throwing everything at it to get a win this prep
   • Not my style of horse but has a chance in a strange race
2. Sangiovese
   • Stable in form, lightly raced – beat Machineguns Jubs last start but MJ should of won by the length of the straight, think that complimented it
   • 207 days off, 900m trial, 1000m race could stringboard of that platform, would need to and 1200?
3. Pienkna
   • Went look for something outside the obvious in this race, so some chance but preferably I would want better Syd and Bris form
4. Raiment
   • Probably a moral after interrogating opposition
   • Should have won last start against a horse that is flying (in her time)
   • Third up barrier two last start to barrier four now – looks good
   • Only question mark, still at 1200m but think it will suit and win anyway
5. Modha
   • Weds class horse with a swoopers chance
   • Form lines moderately franked (chosen prayer, improvement)
6. Thelittleracketeer
   • Lightly raced weight dropped (HAHA) think she’s reached her limit
7. Countess Marionov
   • Couple of nice runs last prep, roughies chance
8. Alaskan Wolf
   • Want long odds on a Weds not here

Race 3 – 3YR old 1200m (71)

1. Improvement
   • Won a week race last start
   • Is a winner but I think trainer has done a great job placing it
   • This race is too strong
2. Ebenos
   • Comes out of a weaker stuff, but has shown a bit of style this prep
   • Not for me
3. Henry the Createth
   • When this stables, horses trialled great (which this horse hasn’t) they still rarely win
   • Not for me
4. Trevioso
   • Can choose what he wants to do from barrier nine
   • I have an opinion of this horse from last prep, didn’t beat much at Gosford but won comfortably
   • Will be having something on
5. Echo Effect
   • Thousand metre trial in good time a positive
   • Has chance lightly raced I’ve not stamped it yet
6. **** Scratched ****
7. Ghostly
   • Great ride by gun to win last start
   • Didn’t beat much
8. Reach for Heaven
   • Last start last prep, great run in top form race
   • 2 trials over 800 & 1000m alright, didn’t jump well last one
9. Tornado of Souls
   • Has nothing done wrong with two trial wins and one race win an unknown quantity that might have ability but not proven yet
10. Pumpkin Pie
    • Lightly raced
    • Second to ECKSTIN last prep – decent trial
    • Don’t think it’s ready this start

Race 4 – 1400m Class 2 (H/Way)

1. Coglire
   • Has raced in proper city stuff
   • Second up after 2000m trials
   • Ready now for 1400m probably it’s best distance
   • Sat OSL in first up run over 1200m great setup
2. Fireman Sam Iam
   • Bushy – pen

 

3. Bold Beginning
   • Strange setup for 1400m
   • Bushy – pen
4. L’Elu
   • Lightly raced – third up over 1400m seems right
   • Out of proper Sat Race (?) but scrubbed to keep in touch
5. Van Halen
   • Exposed wrong stable, pen
6. Al Cubana
   • Decent highway form, reasonably lightly raced
   • Starting to think a spell and have a crack at a highway next prep
   • Few chances in this, so has a chance
7. Skin Deep
   • Bushy – pen
8. Plucky Star
   • Lightly raced so not a complete pen
9. Love None
   • Right setup for 1400m
   • Ignore last prep, different horse this prep
10. Zuzzudio
    • Running well this prep but exposed
11. Mar Nero
    • This kind of horse can’t miss the kick and win this
12. Mr Spin
    • Flocked only highway start
    • Probably bushy

Race 5 – 1600m open

No Comment really – saw Religify over 1600m at Randwick and wanted to find something else – nothing else fit my parameters

Race 6 – 2400m (83)

Distance race – don’t get involved often, 4 Thewayweare ticks a lot of boxes but Avdulla to Spriggs a negative

Race 7 – 1400m (83)

1. Invinzabeel
   1. Want to see the stable do something before I get involved
2. Dylans Roso
   1. Up for a long time – not for me
3. Esteban
   1. ? horse but I think later on

 

4. Sabino Speed
   1. Stable going well
   2. Fourth up after a long spell – seems right
   3. Ticks a few stat boxes
5. Careless
   1. Stable not up to first class yet
   2. Like the jockey change with last two starts competitive
6. Invincible Knight
   1. Lightly raced – good win ratio
   2. Has run against decent horses in its career and has done reasonably well
   3. Think it can springboard of last start win
7. Tower of Song
   1. Typical Snowden trials, just take note two trials over 1000m
   2. Probably primed but getting a bit tired of this horse
8. Disgraceful
   1. Typical stable flop last start – not for me
9. Metallic Crown
   1. No
10. **** Scratched ****
11. We’re Sure
    1. Not forgiving first up flop
12. Chose We Had
    1. Up to too long and low percentage style
13. Louie Sea Kay
    1. Negative jockey change I struggle to back horses on a Saturday that have been beaten by Isorich
14. Lancelot
    1. Pen
15. Arigold
    1. Beat rubbish at Cant last start but this is a weak race

Race 8 – 1100m (78)

1. Top Striker
   1. Going great guns this prep, form lines good
   2. Kind of horse that needs late crack and can be electric so barrier two not a problem
   3. Price is the deciding factor because luck is involved
2. Encostanati
   1. Lovely trial before first up run, had excuses
   2. Worth another chance at right odds
3. Our Renaissance
   1. Think it’s found its limit – 1100m Randwick wont suit
4. Awasita
   1. Similar to Top Striker but not as good
5. Last Witness
   1. No
6. **** Scratched ****

 

7. Schumacher
   1. Pen
8. Badajoz
   1. Pen
9. Quantrill
   1. Up too long – not good enough
10. Wonderbolt
    1. No
11. Magic Alibi
    1. Poor form lines
12. **** Scratched ****
13. Machinegun Jubs
    1. Lightly raced, has ability
    2. Certainly beaten last start
    3. Inside barrier but Collett Betting a positive
    4. Needs a little luck but great chance
14. Jetello
    1. None
15. Beau Tirage
    1. 1000m horse
16. Jetsonic
    1. Pen
17. Siliqua
    1. Pen

Race 9 – 1600m (78)

Too Many ? about Waller horses staying out

 

 

 

Track versus Office or Home Part 1

 

My first two months at the Track. What's more irritating 2000 gorgeous drunk girls or the Wife?

 

Probably debatable or variable this one but when you’re scared shitless of one and just irritated by the other maybe the track wins with this one.

 

Lambourne - Always at the track, handles the information overload perfectly and is an expert of snapping up the best odds just before the price goes off. Still gets harassed by the missus but only on the phone, so at least he can choose not to answer. Clearly the track is a positive.

 

Gordo - misses trained not to talk to be me between 12:00 and 5:30pm but sometimes the looks are just as irritating.

At the track chatting to people who are passionate about racing has been not only a great learning experience but also a pleasure. But Christ be prepared to be overloaded with bad luck stories. Track versus home probably even, I'm still a bit lost out there.

 

Now Glenn Pollett - always at the track, doesn't need to go to the gym, does about 20km at high pace running around the ring. Let’s put a FitBit on him, I think the distances and heart rate fluctuations could make an interesting PHD Study, how is he still alive?

He has a great knack of picking off the great early odds offered by the bookies on the outer.

Being a horse studier and assessor it’s imperative for him at the track.

As far as the missus is concerned she's sitting right next to him laptop open and working away. Is this a negative or positive? First thoughts seemed to tend towards the negative, worst of both worlds, but then you realise she is a great punter, form analyst and horse flesh assessor.

It seems to me the track definitely wins for Glenn

 

So, the score card so far is two and half to a half in favour of the track. In the next instalment - Betting Advantages and Disadvantages will be assessed

Hi Marc

I listened with interest re your statement concerning possible excessive watering of Rosehill last sat.

I have to disagree strongly that too much water was put on the track. In summer in particular tracks should start as a good 4. I have perspective on this as a punter, owners and trainers view. Most horses will not perform to their optimum level on hard tracks and will most likely come out of the race with sore joints, shins , jarring up etc restricting their longevity and ability to race into their campaign. I only have to see horses I own and others my wife trains to see the patch up work she does after horses run on rock hard tracks.You can also look at the stewards reports on days when the tracks are good 3s and you will see many trainers and jockeys explaining to the stewards the horse didn't stretch or perform as expected on the firm going. After all, comparing humans to horses would you prefer to walk/run exercise on a hard surface or a surface with some cushion or give in it. Last sat I'm guessing you're saying the inside was off due to the excessive watering. I'd say it was probably more the wear and tear from previous meetings rather than watering. At any rate you guys being punters would like to see good competitive racing with good size fields and horses performing at there best yet calling for tracks not to be watered actually produces the exact opposite .

Mark Waugh

To all those who've been asking about Todd, TopBetta, Dallas and the Punters Show, there is now some news to share.

Glenn and Marc have bitten the bullet and taken Todd Buckingham, TopBetta, 12Follow and Dallas Baker to the Supreme Court of NSW.

The initial hearing was last Monday, where Todd and his legal team turned up to do battle with Marc and Glenn's legal team.

The case continues with Glenn and Marc heading into mediation with Dallas and Todd on December 12.

We will keep you posted on the fate of the Punters Show and please leave your comments or queries below.

Rosehill tomorrow (26/11) features a premium prizemoney early season 2yo event where #11 Serena Bay is the lone filly.

I asked Paul Daily, of Ratings2Win, to interrogate his superlative Axis software with the question posed by Saturday's circumstance - Do early season 2yo Fillies perform above expectation against their male counterparts?

Horse Sex	Bets	Wins	SR	Collect	Avg	POT	Profit	Outs
C~G	366	40	10.9%	$160.00	$6.00	-16.96%	-$32.67	33
F	335	42	12.5%	$168.00	$6.60	-3.67%	-$6.41	30

 The above analysis considered Metropolitan 2yo mixed sex races in the last 2 years of data sample from 1st August to 31st December.

Clearly fillies have performed better than colts/geldings, both in strike rate and expectation.

I urge all those keen to pose any such questions to check out the ultimate in horse racing database software; Ratings2Win Axis. Click to download an extensive FREE info pack.

We asked Paul Daily of www.ratings2win.com.au to interrogate his fabulous database [highly recommended for serious students] for the burning question of the day.

Does Glyn Schofield getting on or off a horse represent a positive angle?

Click for Paul's detailed breakdown

 Horse Racing in this Country is as traditional and commonplace as is anything else we proudly call “Australian”.

Chances are, if you have found your way onto our Website www.ratings2win.com.au or that of www.racingrant.com  and you are “of a certain age”, you have at least one, probably more people in your family who considered “having a bet” as routine as brushing their teeth, as you grew up.

If, on the other hand you have only been in the workforce for a decade or less, perhaps your interest in Horse Racing stems from the fact that you are attracted to “Sports Betting” and you have seen the countless markets available on “The Races” when you have been betting on your preferred Sporting encounter? If that’s the case and you have no family history regarding Horse Racing, you have done well to have made it this far so stick at it for a few more lines, you were smart enough to get this far, so hang around.

The truth is most gamblers LOSE, why do you think Australia is enticed by advertisements from Bookmaking firms wanting your attention and hard earned cash?

I myself, caught the Horse Racing bug in my early teens and it has given me the ride of my life, but then where I differ from most gamblers who LOSE is that I devote all my working hours, at least twice as long as what the average job entails to ensure that I finish in front.

I now have no choice because I am no different to the vast majority, I have a wife and family to support. Given the reality that I have invested more money to develop the R2W Axis database than many spend buying a luxurious family home and given the reality that it costs a fortune to maintain same each year, I am compelled to succeed because for me, it’s all I want to be involved with. My Master’s Degree can be just that, something to proudly hang on a wall.

Fortunately, somebody smart once said, “Find a job you love and you will never work a day in your life” and that fits snugly when describing me.

Therefore, whilst I could continue here and invite you to compare our product to those of our competitors, I’d prefer to simply invite you to explore our website and that of our strategic alliance partner Racing Rant with an open mind and then unhesitatingly call or email me with as many questions as you care to ask because I am here, as proud as punch with our highly acclaimed Axis database and relish the chance to show it off to genuine, suitable potential clients.

I could boast and quote names of some of the highest profile horse players who I have chosen NOT to be associated with but that would be at the very least bad manners. What I can publicly state is that I have been very flattered to have received approaches from such people who all fortunately understood that because of the vast size of their turnover, I would be creating financial suicide by allowing them access to our methodology because they all know that our mutual source of income comes from betting. That’s why on our website, I mention that a “limited number of licences is available” contact us for availability.

The team has to be smallish and tight but everyone in the team must have made available to them all the “toys” that I have to play with, so as to protect the ongoing success of our select crew, we can do without the “whales” as they are known in “casino speak”.

Most gamblers LOSE because they are looking for a free ride, a pot of gold, a dream come true result and they chase that futile scenario believing in most cases that their luck is about to change.

A chef would not attempt to prepare a dish for the first time without a recipe any more than a motorist would attempt to drive a car without first filling it with petrol. Winning at “The Races” can’t be done without the correct approach either.

Sadly, many people think they can fill out a betting ticket, log onto an account or make a phone call and place a bet with an entitlement to win, just as they are entitled to be paid a wage for a week’s worth of hard work. The obvious difference is that to earn a wage, one has put in the hours.

WINNING on Horse Racing must be treated like any other successful business, winning just doesn’t happen. The people who believe they can “follow this jockey or trainer” that they have a hunch that they are in for a good day, the people who want to back the tips from the bloke next door because he once took out a girl who had a sister who went on a date with a bloke who had a half share in a horse, the people who wish to do no more than buy something from a newsagency that was printed at the very least, one day earlier and expect TO WIN, well perhaps those people, can’t be helped.

However, if you have a sincere desire to make a profit from Horse Racing and perhaps you’ve been disappointed in the past by an involvement with others, please remember that I and the likes of the team at Racing Rant are a walking talking advertisement for the fact that it can be done and has been done for many years. If it hadn’t, I wouldn’t be suggesting to you to peruse our website, I’d be too busy earning a living some other way to keep my family, my business and myself afloat.

I urge you to continue expanding your horizon to the valuable racing knowledge that Marc and his team at Racing Rant provide anyone willing to listen. Our team at R2W has a simple yet concise mission statement:

"To arm our clients with the necessary tools, information, knowledge, education and understanding that enables them to profit from racing on a consistent basis"

And on that basis, I invite you to experience what makes Axis Australia’s best horse racing database and in doing so learn to become a better punter and form analyst. So, open the door to what is a genuine limited opportunity and purchase the special Racing Rant / R2W offer of an Axis Professional starter pack, which includes 2 months’ free subscription as well as 3 years of past data for the special price of $1,997. That’s a saving of $1,188.

I look forward to the opportunity of showcasing our R2W Axis database further to you soon and remember I’m just a phone call or email away.

Cheers and Good Punting

Paul Daily

Click to download and view a free information pack of Ratings2Win Axis Database

 

In-Depth with Paul Daily (Ratings2Win)

The SEMINAL race is a trusty tool of form students the world over. We’re eternally vigilant for that bountiful formline, known on the track as a “hot race”, that operates as a springboard for horses at their next appearance.

At Beaumont recently, a promising local 3yo, ALL FROM SCRAP, stepped out in a pair of 1150m races a week apart. After two country contests, he recorded his second victory at his provincial debut, making all after safely repelling the challenge of another talented local and co-favourite, Woomera. All From Scrap’s subsequent run was the subject of an earlier post, where he duelled valiantly with the undefeated and archly progressive Art D’Amour.

 

 

Enthusiasts would do well to anticipate an ongoing rich vein of good form from the aforementioned Beaumont events.

An early clue lay in the trading on the October 29 race. The Kim Waugh trained Prince Dylan had reappeared at Gosford 16 days prior and disappointed as the $2.50 favourite. At Beaumont, he was shown no respect whatsoever, jumping at upwards of $40 on the exchange. Both contests were labelled Provincial Class 1, but the betting indicated that comparisons were to end there.

As we have observed, All From Scrap was heavily played at his 1150m reprise and lost no admirers. Moreover, Stimuli took his $20 BetFair SP to win handsomely at Taree on Tuesday last, while Bobby Be, well astern at $30 plus, found many fans, only to be beaten on the post at his outing at Beaumont last Sunday.

Meanwhile the Art D’Amour race has provided a lone subsequent performer. Coys backed up 8 days after his 9.5length tailing of the field at $65 to take out a 1300m Class 2 on the same track.

Today’s Beaumont “Hot Form” contestant is the lightly raced 4yo LEAVE YA NUMBA [2.12pm]

Video footage courtesy of RacingNSW

Stakes day at Flemington may have stolen the limelight, but an interesting quirk caught my attention at the fag end of an ultimately intriguing Beaumont card.

The penultimate over the 1300m course was conducted at Benchmark 70 level; Provincial “A” grade. Gary Portelli’s mare Bel Selene brought to the contest four faultless performances since the shades were applied six months prior. Indeed, she had returned from a break with a strong sense of purpose; bravely making all first up at Beaumont before driving her arch nemesis Bonbonniere into the Gosford turf. Plainly her place was “in the vanguard” and regular rider Rachel King was determined to be there. As evidenced by the replay below, jockey King makes her intentions clear, striving for the lead in the early stages. Frenchman Johan Victoire takes up the challenge on Gary Moore’s Classic Uniform. The ensuing duel lacks subtlety, and naturally the winner is sourced elsewhere, with only Classic Uniform retaining his reputation after a bruising encounter.

The nightcap, a shorter event from the 1150m start, was an even more absorbing contest for Class 2 horses. Local, All From Scrap, had debuted provincially seven days prior, with a stirring performance to make all, over, importantly, today’s course and distance. Yet again, Gary Moore’s Winning Supreme looked the “fly in the ointment”, with sufficient early speed and purpose to keep out All From Scrap, especially with the short run before turning, and enable the promising resumer Art D’Amour to obtain the “run of the race”. Watch as the evergreen and irrepressible Robert Thompson purposefully (?) dawdles from the barrier. Victoire on Winning Supreme assumes the lead and relaxes in the absence of any outside bid. Thompson then catches the Frenchman napping, darting around the field to take it up, thereby nullifying one challenger and exposing Art D’Amour, forcing him to “face the breeze”. Alas, such brilliant strategy was all in vain as Art D’Amour announced himself as a future Sydney Saturday Metropolitan winner in the most impressive Provincial performance of the year.

My pre-race approach to the two events was as one-dimensional as Ms King’s. The “King of the Coalfields” had snapped me to attention, reminiscent of Bowman and Dye employing similar tactics down the back straight at Canterbury. Top-notch adds value!

Video footage courtesy of RacingNSW