News

Today’s Wyong programme is to be conducted with the moveable rail in the “True” position. Thursday morning’s precipitation has been augmented by subsequent irrigation, and this should ensure rails dwelling to be slightly inferior, with wide draws best placed to enjoy the anticipated mildly-velodrome effect.

The past eight days have seen five provincial fixtures. Small wonder, then, at today’s anorexic offering. Nonetheless, my interest was piqued by the 4.25pm sixth, a Class 2 starting from the end of the chute; i.e. 1350m. Permit me to analyse all bar the despised Opera Rose, in market order (@9am):

BOGIE [$3] – Made a winning debut at the NJC meeting transferred to Scone twelve months ago, since then he’s been an under-achiever; a recent victory at Nowra and three provincial rear-half finishes resolutely condemning him as country class. He does carry a gun in T Clark, but also the least preferred barrier.

BRIGHT FUTURE [$3.5] – Tradesman-like performer who likes to make all, and drawn the ideal leader’s barrier, the outside. Aside from his inside marble last start, he was primed and found wanting. Bottom line; competitive but exposed.

DRILL MASTER [$6] Team Hawkes cast-off who debuts for the low percentage N Mayfield-Smith stable after three regional Victorian runs back. The market seems to have overlooked the yard change.

SILENT DREAM [$10] Local mare who has caught my eye working hard in two recent Beaumont runs, especially last start where after pressing on to shade the lead, she fought bravely down the running. T Huet replaces B McDougall and I recommend her to you:

ANOTHER LARGA [$11] Home track resumer who broke through with the blinkers fitted at today’s track and distance. He worked in a fast run city race before a short spell, has trialled in a slick heat, returns with his winning gear, and his rider is no worse than third ranked on today’s card. I’ve marked him dangerous.

BAROQUE GIRL [$11] Resuming after graduating to the staying distances at the end of last campaign. Her trials indicate a dour return

HOUDINI HAL [$15] Another course and distance maiden winner who has not been a factor twice since. He did draw the slow lane last start at Goulburn and has trialled twice in the interim. I’m wary but suspect he’s a talent-free zone.

The modern day Kembla Grange bears scant resemblance to my earliest memory dating back thirty years:

Today’s programme is conducted with the rail in the 7m position, last used on July 16^th. On that occasion leaders and rails dwellers were in the ascendancy, the only time such an advantage was afforded the entire winter.

The Wallerathon

[1.09pm] The Chris Waller stable has stacked the mile maiden with 4 of the 9 starters. Nonetheless, Arabian and Prince Morpheus appear scratching for form, while Mozart’s Work and Nothing Box emanate from a poor reference at Kembla’s most recent meeting a fortnight back. Perhaps Mozart’s Work may improve from a wide draw, but the favourite LOUD ENOUGH has the right form and the draw to make all at his 3^rd run back after stepping sharply from 1200m to 1600m and drawing unfavourably inside last start.

Twelve months ago the curtain came down on the Broadmeadow course proper with the running of the “battler’s” carnival leg, conducted on the Saturday following Friday’s Cup meeting.

The opener on 2015’s Saturday card fell away to 5 starters in a Class 2 over 1400m, 4 mares and a gelding. All 5 were last-start winners. The roughie of the field, Ruling Queen, was driven to the lead from her death-seat in-running position, and held the others at bay. Last matched price on the exchange was $19. Her lead-up was victory in a Kempsey Class 1 over 1450m.

Fast forward a year and the nightcap on battler’s day was a Class 2 over 1350m, The Beaumont inner track’s maximum back straight distance. On this occasion the race was restricted to fillies and mares, and only one contestant was a last-start victor, the roughie Lady Corelli, a narrow winner of a Kempsey Class 1 over 1450m. Matched at “the off” at $80, her rider Jeff Penza seized the initiative, driving the mare to the lead. Lady Corelli “made all” staving off the strongly fancied local Clevedon Bay in a gritty display.

I’m proud to say that my Beaumont Assessments suggested backing Lady Corelli, as shown below

In my pre-race study, I was unfamiliar with Lady Corelli, as her career had been restricted to country events. However, I had noted in processing recent results, that the runner-up, Mosaytion, had won since. I use and recommend the Ratings2Win database, so analysis of subsequent performances is but one-click away:

Yes, Mosaytion had won off his runner-up performance, and the favourite, Lippy and Pearls, had also won her next run. Furthermore, the 5^th and 6^th horses had placed at their next starts.

My interest in this lowly Kempsey race was seriously piqued after Lady Corelli’s brave performance. Who, I wondered, is Jeewan, the 4^th placegetter in this now infamous event, and when is he stepping out next.

Again, a single click in my trusty R2W shows:

Jeewan is a maiden 4yo who began his career with Hayes and Dabernig, soon migrated to south-east Queensland, and is now based at Newcastle, in the care of Grant Marshall, of Slots fame. His Kempsey 4^th was his first run for his new trainer and at his next start Jeewan will be second-up in his second preparation, an ideal scenario.

Racing&Sports Horseform is another handy reference point, on this occasion, informing me if Jeewan is an acceptor in an upcoming race:

He is set to run in a mile Class 1 on Monday September 19 in what appears a thick race on paper, to be conducted on sodden ground.

We await the denouement of this tale with bated breath.

@justideal

Illawarra Intimations 10^th September 2016

Kembla Grange backs up today with the rail pushed out to the 5m position which suits on-pacers best kept away from the rail

The Golden Rose Connection

[1.39pm] Five years ago to the day, the impressive Manawanui took out the Golden Rose after a dashing display by Glyn Schofield. Ten days later #3 ROGUE MISSILE was born, eventually taking up residency in the same yard as the illustrious Golden Rose winner. Now a 5yo, he has only had 2 starts to date in one preparation. Issues aside, every public appearance has indicated pace commensurate with Metropolitan class and the short course at Kembla today looks tailor-made. His rivals appear unconvincing, Call The Coppers fell short at Scone recently, while the unraced filly Diddums has been flat out in her home track trials.

WALLER MARKS INTENTIONS WITH COUNTERATTACK

By Nicholas Coleman

As keen form students we often seek gear changes as a sign of intent. Sometimes intention is associated with the adjustment of gear, other times it calls for horses resuming with their favourite piece. Waller had many punters questioning Counterattack’s readiness for his pipe opener in the Eskimo Prince last preparation, when the blinkers were removed for the preference of winkers. Tomorrow, Counterattack heads to the Theo Marks Stakes with his blinkers on and a good sign the stable is feeling bullish about his prospects.

It’s hard not to get excited about Counterattack’s winning claims when closely exploring his profile. He had a similar preparation to ‘glamour girl’ Winx before she went on to win the 2015 edition of the race last year. She had a productive autumn campaign, followed by a life changing trip north of the border, to now racing’s superstar status.  Further evidence of the Queensland winter being the ‘trip of a lifetime’ is supported by Hauraki’s win last week in the Tramway.

Many attentive trial scouts would have been impressed by the latest trial of Counterattack.  It brought back memories of Good Project’s trial this time last year. Free striding in the lead and full of running.  Amazingly Good Project went on to produce a stellar campaign that season and was crowned a group 1 winner on our western shores.

Furthermore, the conditions of tomorrow’s contest have a tendency to favour those who seek weight relief from the handicapper. Races of such nature are designed for horses still climbing on an upward spiral, not yet to have found their true rating. Both Southern Legend and Counterattack have further improvement beckoning, and early price assessors have acted accordingly.

It appears if value is to be found, it lies within the two ‘up and comers’ just mentioned. A strong case can be made for Counterattack to be priced favourite ahead of his fellow combatant.  They have met once before on the same battle ground back in the early autumn. On that day the market expectation were slightly in Counterattack’s favour. The 2 metre rail on that occasion favoured those sucking up and pinching ground, hence the inside draws exceeding expectations throughout the afternoon.  Southern Legend was gifted clear running in the straight after saving energy in transit. Counterattack on the other hand was a victim of barrier 11, trying to state his claims in the three wide running line. He was also without his head gear; tomorrow it will not be left in his locker.

@racinggosspel

Hawkesbury today backs up from a damp Saturday meet, presenting near-dry conditions with the rail out 4m. This should assist runners to scout wide in the straight to locate superior ground near the outside running rail. Horses with middle draws are best placed for this strategy.

City trainers Barred!

[3.55pm] Hawkesbury programs usually feature a maiden restricted to provincial and country trained horses, and Race 6 today is such an event. #12 POET’S ADVOCATE worked hard outside the lead in a similar race on Rowley Mile day at his first run on his home track, and is poised with Tommy Berry aboard to gain a sweet run. #7 TRIPLE HILL is another local who has shown talent in two country appearances and replacing Gordon Yorke’s apprentice Eric Cheung with Glyn Schofield seems a positive rider change of the highest magnitude. Manhattan Drive found a fast lane at his most recent run and looks well found, while Barricade emanates from a potent Gosford maiden but lacked any significant participation in the event. Lakshme is one to oppose after five consecutive 1100m runs on his home track of Gosford, most recently with the coveted inside on “one-lane-highway-day”.

RacingRant's Midweek Preview Show filmed under the stars on Tuesday evening provided viewers with some strong leads on today's 7 event card from Canterbury yesterday.

Gordo gave viewers of the show the #GaiBott trained Purrari in race 3 @ $13. His line of reasoning via the eminently talented Global Gossip proved compelling.

Pearla hit the line hard to supply followers with several winners; offering My Giuliano in the opener, pushing strongly for Burradoo in the 5th, before astutely assessing Painted Firetail in the nightcap as a devastating fresh performer.

Bring on Golden Rose day, bring your "A" game Glennsta!

Gordo @ Goulburn

[1.40pm] #14 MOQUEEN goes to the mile 3^rd up. This 3yo filly is perfectly placed today after 5 city runs and an unsuitable tempo most recently.

[2.15pm] #3 FABVIER is another 3yo filly 3^rd up today. Critically she loses her apprentice rider and gains a gun in Blake Shinn. She is labelled today!

[2.50pm] #4 POSTMASTER GENERAL debuted at Gosford outside the fast lane. Tye Angland on a horse with scope has definite appeal.

[3.25pm] #1 COYS strikes a deep field 2^nd up, but is out of the market and had trialled well prior to receiving very little opportunity in what looks a seminal provincial event won by Choice We Had.

Wyong Wisdom Sunday 28^th August 2016

In recent years Wyong Race Club has reconfigured its carnival to concentrate on Cup day Friday. The Sunday prior is now classified as Prelude day, essentially a minor meeting conducted with the rail out.

Today we are confronted by a 4m rail with a narrow cutaway, one horse wide. I forecast a circuit favourable to the vanguard, rendering looping the field a problematic experience. On-pacers rule.

The six furlong maiden

[1.49pm] Race 3 on the programme piqued my interest, a sprint maiden for mixed ages and sexes. Holes in the early assessments appear to be Oakfield Rickie, a 5yo hugely flattered on debut by the Gosford Lane, and 3yo filly Bring Me The Bling, resuming today off a plain 2yo Autumn, and surely destined for much longer assignments. Two 3yos who contested a deep midweek metropolitan maiden recently shape promisingly for today’s assignment #10 CORDONED who received zero opportunity at short odds on debut at this track, then worked in inferior ground last start. His French postilion, Johan Victoire, has begun his Australian sojourn competently. #6 ENGAGING showed good toe, with blinkers applied, to lead his city rivals comfortably, and will be seen to advantage ridden similarly today.

Gordo’s Gold

With the Glennsta licking his wounds, Gordo has cheerfully supplied his Wyong recommendations

[12.35pm] The aforementioned Sezanne city maiden supplies the very stylish #4 MILITARY MACHINE. This tri-cornered contest among Hawkes, Snowden and O’Shea is the meeting’s highlight.

[15.35pm] Despite short odds, the switch from Costin to Panya appeals strongly on #5 SUPER TOO, making her the rent bet on the card