Gosford Gazette 23rd August 2016
After the one-lane fiasco of the 4m rail at the last meeting, racing returns to Gosford on an infinitely more bettable true rail. Inside draws and fence dwellers should be handled with care as the full course typically favours runners higher on the camber.
The short-course Maiden:
[1.10pm] #6 LOOSE GOOSE begins her second preparation with a new rider and fresh purpose. At her most recent start at Kembla on May 14, Deanne Panya was not shown to advantage when in the lead but kept off the rail. I believe the circumstances of her run offset the shallow quality of that event. Her rival for favouritism today #8 Sinopia is now deep into his preparation from a yard not renowned for keeping them up and has to come back in distance. The only other runner in consideration #5 Zizou Supreme has trialled well on two occasions for his new stable, but has had a twelve month layoff combined with horrid raceform for his previous trainer.
Illawarra Intimations 20th August 2016
Kembla Grange backs up from last Saturday, again on a good surface, this time with the rail out 3m. Leaders appeared advantaged last week but I have marked the track fair. Solo leaders should again do well while my preference is for high draws and off the rails running.
[12.54pm] #1 EVA LUNA chased with purpose at this course three weeks back, then was scratched to clear the path for stablemate Level Eight last week, who failed to return the favour. She is marked a good thing’s price, and looks it. An exacta with #6 THE DEACON may supply some juice.
[2.44pm] #1 TO BE SURE took on Redzel and lost first-up last prep. This time she resumes at the scene of a brave attempt to make all, against the bias, last start when bested by a subsequent metro winner. She has trialled strongly and looks a “monty”. Exacta players are recommended #5 ALL IN RHYTHM who returns after battling in the strongest 2yo race of the season anywhere won by the Gai-trained Evacuation
The Nightcap:[4.44pm] The Snowden 3yo First Approval has been assessed tightly, but two aspects of his formline demand attention. Firstly, the unconvincing manner of his last-start win when, secondly, he was perfectly ridden by Kembla King Mitchell Bell, who gives way to the stable apprentice today? #9 FRAGONARD has the best jockey (Penza), and a better turn of foot, rendering this 3yo filly the recommended play
A Clarendon Critique 18th August 2016
Rowley Mile day at Hawkesbury will be conducted on a normal rail, with the surface nearly dry. The absence of artificial watering improves the prospects for the inside ground. At the corresponding meeting last year (track-good, rail-true), rails-in-run was some advantage while middle draws supplied most winners.
The majority of lead-up form on today’s card is wet, providing good opportunities for those contestants seeking firmer footing.
[1.20pm] #3 RESOLUTE debuts for the Snowden juggernaut, the first of B Shinn’s 2 rides. Appearing dour in a recent 1050m trial is typical of this yard, and experience has shown this to be a positive rather than negative factor. The exposed form in this short course maiden lacks substance.
[1.55pm] Assessors have marked the favourite (Urban Prince) a tight quote. Certainly he will be suited by a genuine tempo likely to be set by Serg on Prince Roo, but I think #1 HURRICANES has a good setup here; the best recent dry-track run in the Grafton Guineas, then unsuited but primed by a sticky Canterbury 1900m run.
[4.25pm] Our leading trainer seems to have been one of the few to notice this race on the Calendar. He sends Marenostro out on a 5-day backup to squeeze the last remnant of life out of his campaign, but there is more to like in his other contestants. #4 MCCREERY is better suited today at the mile after dropping back in distance on a backup last start. Today is his target!
Beaumont Behemoths 16th August 2016
Future interest in the card at Beaumont today centres on the sprint maidens (races 3 and 4) but two opportunities present themselves squarely elsewhere.
The surface is nearly dry after 3 successive Heavy readings, suggesting a profile similar to the meeting on July 2nd which seemed to favour those off the pace.
Bet around these:
[3.45pm] #4 MERI RANI looks too well found at a shade of odds-on. Her 3 runs back demonstrate her to be well exposed, grinding over the top of the despised Satirical Dame in the best ground at Gosford before pack-chasing with Bowman on board in a highly dubious Rosehill fillies event. Heywood, the stable apprentice, has been steering competently, but the rider switch plainly does no favour to her chances.
I look to #6 Little Miss Brown, unsuited in the Warwick Farm morass first up and #8 Assurity, in a winning vein out wide.
[5.00pm] Assessors have #7 MATERNAL too tight at $2.6. She returns from a lengthy spell with an apprentice rider and a common-looking trial. While lightly raced, it would seem significant that the very highly esteemed James McDonald steered her lone victory.#1 Arsonist has been gelded for his new yard, #6 Triple Hero is a winner here when last on this track, #11 Exotic Art is looking for today’s firmer surface and #12 Yambaah looks a wild card starting out for the cleverest non-metropolitan stable
Keys to Kembla 13th August 2016
Kembla race today on a nearly dry surface with the rail returning to true. Often this favours wide runners and high draws but there have been occasions when the inside ground is winnable. From a future viewpoint, the nightcap holds much interest with the clash of the Snowden’s Julius Caesar and Godolphin’s Drachenfels. Nonetheless, my plays lie elsewhere on the card
[12.54pm] R2-6: POMELO, steps into a Class 2 at a mile. He continues to improve, showed a good turn of foot last start and either leads or trails the leader.
[2.44pm] R5-7: RED HENNO, is second up in his second prep. A winner first up at Goulburn, he comes home to engage with a very exposed bunch, and his scope will stand him in good stead.
Gosford 11th August 2016
The meeting at Gosford today sees the rail go out to the 4m position. Most “rail-out” positions at Gosford produce a fast lane against the rails, and the expectation is that Leaders on the fence and rails-in-run horses will be strongly favoured. Barrier 1 demands the utmost respect.
Glenn Pollett is sweet on a debutante in the opener at 12.35pm. MACKELLAR’S LOVE caught his eye at the Randwick trials, and the rider of the moment, Deanne Panya, is on board. He expects to get the program off to a flying start.
Race 3 #13 STRYKE A RANSOM (1.45pm) debuted on this course a fortnight back and was put to the sword by Joe Pride’s Sugar Bay Leonard (a hot contender in the 4.10pm today). With Team Hawkes favourite Larapineta possibly lacking early toe from a wide draw and Gerald Ryan’s touted debutante Oakfield Rickie starting out as a 5yo, Tim Clark may be able to steer Stryke A Ransom into a favourable in-run position
I have been following and researching Australian racing form since 1976, with a particular emphasis on Sydney. In 1987, I quit my law studies to pursue a full-time career in the Sydney betting ring, and in 1988, was approached by then leading rails bookmaker, Peter Todd, to provide him with an accurate priceline with which to frame the market, and to make decisions about which horses to lay, to keep, or to back. I began offering these assessments publicly soon after. In 1990, I took out a bookmaker's licence, and fielded on the provincial tracks of Gosford, Hawkesbury, and Wyong until 1999. In tandem with my bookmaking operations, I used my price assessments to professionally punt on all Sydneymetropolitan and provincial racemeetings. Since 1999, I have devoted my time exclusively to assessing, analysing, and researching Sydney metropolitan and provincial form.
What is it? How did it come about? How does it complement your wagering?
I started wagering in December 1980. In those early years just doing the form was sufficient. Going to the track with 70 competing bookies you didn't need to be Einstein to win, just being more than capable mathematically was enough.
Along come the 90's and I was trying to improve my bottom line in what was now a more competitive arena. I started to work hard on videos and doing more homework to be able to stay financially viable. With the game continuing to evolve the ring had more pro's and less bookies, it was still a vibrant market place but getting tougher. It was at this time after a particularly bad trot I ventured down to the parade ring more for some air and clarity than anything else. That walk changed my life.
Years of observing and note taking on horses different shapes and behaviour patterns. The way they walk, how they compare from run to run, all the answers were in front of me and I knew I had found the edge I needed to survive.
Of course I still need to do my homework and videos but it is MYM that really influences my final decision. It is my most valuable weapon in a game where you need as much ammunition as you can have to win.
Use it to complement your own work, to help you with the confidence needed to win.
As I say if you don't win you lose, no one draws in racing. WHAT A GAME!