Reproduction of Pearla's analysis of last years' Sires Produce:

It may be timely to republish my WEEKEND WISDOM from last year's BMW card at Rosehill. Note that Preferment has also remained WINLESS subsequent to his 2016 triumph. Jameka has a cross to bear!

BMW Blues

At the dawn of the new millennium, high hopes were cherished for the continued excellence and pre-eminence of the Tancred Stakes, Australia’s mile-and-a-half classic at WFA.

Mercedes had just presided over an unprecedented run of elite Tancred winners; Might and Power sandwiched by back-to-back Octagonal and Tie The Knot.

It was the shock victory of Curata Storm in 2001, using a Hawkesbury “B” grass Class One as a stepping stone to infamy, that signalled the commencement of decay.

Tie The Knot at 8/13 was a floundering 4th.

And the perversity of the turf would see Curata Storm fail to place in 20 subsequent outings.

Exit Mercedes, hello again BMW. Cups darlings Ethereal and Makybe Diva bookended victories by the undistinguished Freemason and Grand Zulu.

Since then journeymen such as Blutigeroo and Cedarberg have raised barely an eyebrow as the once proud classic continues its decline.

Clearly the final nail was the elevation of the Queen Liz in 2014 from half a million to 4 million, together with the pruning of three-quarters of a million from the Tancred purse.

Amazingly, the past five Tancred winners have failed to win since. Cedarberg 0/2, Manighar 0/17, Fiveandahalfstar 0/4, Silent Achiever 0/11 and Hartnell 0/6.

Curata Storm has company.

And Hartnell’s odds-on defeat in last year’s Sydney Cup takes on a new meaning.

Saturday’s Tancred renewal certainly provided thrilling theatre, while the purposeful victory by triple-major Preferment appears to have a credibility-restoring aspect.

However, it may be notable that Preferment went to the start winless in 6 group one appearances away from Flemington.

The Waller juggernaut cracked the nut with a sledgehammer trifecta, five previous years offering a Beaten Up 3rd, albeit with limited market presence.

Clearly observable was the conveyor-belt that supplied the placings together with the strung-up/shuffled-back of the junior and the mare.

And the early thrusting indicator of a now ready-to-fire Storm The Stars.

Floating Fillies

Saturday’s Storm Queen (Vinery) culminated with a fairytale aura.

Single Gaze debuted at Rosehill back in November 2014, jumped at $230 on the exchange, and was last standing as firstly Exosphere, then Counterattack, folded in front of her.

Her last-to-first victory was visually impressive, but clearly a product of an excessive early tempo bringing her fancied rivals unstuck.

In 9 subsequent runs she adopted what became a customary rearward position, loitering near the back, often running home into a place past tiring rivals.

They were valuable placings; Magic Millions 2yo, Black Opal, Magic Millions 3yo. But her racing style is just the kind sophisticated players love to oppose.

Single Gaze returned to Sydney this Autumn in the Surround Stakes with new purpose and a different approach. She settled OUTSIDE THE LEAD.

Welcome, lady, to the world where winningness is constructed, by participating in a race.

She has gone on to breakthrough in the Keith Nolan and defy them in the Storm Queen, racing one-out-one-back each time.

Enough of the victor, the race itself requires some commentary.

The Storm Queen is one of 7 majors set aside for 3yo fillies. Way too many, in my opinion, for the collective worth of the cohort.

However, Saturday’s group one stands alone for simple lack of a lead-up race.

The concept of a Grand Final/Group One is one of culmination.

The Flight is preceded by the Tea Rose, 1000 Guineas by the Prelude, VRC Oaks by the Wakeful, Australian Oaks by the Storm Queen, Australasian Oaks by the Auraria, and the Queensland Oaks by the Doomben Roses.

The Storm Queen, in the past 14 runnings, has been won 4 times from the Coolmore beaten brigade, and 4 times via the Kembla race, a Group 3 conducted at a provincial racecourse.

This is an ill-fit, rendering this particular major dubious.

Special Harmony failed to place in 7 subsequent runs. Hollow Bullet, 11 unplaced runs post Storm Queen. Serenade Rose annexed the Oaks thence one 3rd in her last 5 runs. Miss Finland won the Memsie first up in her following campaign then winless in 8 appearances. Faint Perfume failed to place in 8 four-year-old appearances.

Even Mosheen, despite having beaten the males in the Randwick Guineas prior to her Storm Queen win, succumbed to the curse, seriously underperforming in 4 runs the following Spring.

But best of all, Mirjulisa Lass, winning from a midweek 3rd, failing to place again in 16 further career starts.

The Ansett sponsorship from 1992-2001 certainly left this race a legacy.

Looking Ahead

The Rosehill component of our Autumn carnival has concluded with the focus upon Randwick for the next three Saturdays. This poses the obvious question; how will the Rosehill form translate when tested in the coming weeks?

Last Saturday’s rail position of 5m seemed to offer some advantage to those close to the pace, with the inside lane performing solidly throughout the programme.

The fact of a significantly wide rail will encourage me to oppose many at their subsequent start who I perceive to have been assisted to some degree. However, it may be argued that a “box-seat” run, i.e. 3rd on the fence is not always advantageous when the rails is fair.

I would often observe Nash Rawiller in such a position, hang well back from the leader in front of him, as far as possible. The conclusion I drew from this was that he was endeavouring to provide opportunity to build the horse’s momentum before seeking the desired split when making his run.

Valley Girl in the Storm Queen found herself box-seating after a positive start from jockey Prebble. The gentle tempo of the race caused the development of a “sprint home”, and Valley Girl’s amalgam of a distance drop from her last start and having to await the opening of a run rendered her box-seat position decidedly vexatious.

Another in-running position offering scant succour was the death-seat, its most notable occupant the fading Solicit. Her stablemate Angel’s Beach, likewise, covered herself in shame after sitting outside the lead. Man of Choice swapped photogenia for ambulance accompaniment.

I have previously extolled the virtue of Storm The Stars. Entirely Platinum, the only runner tried to beat red-hot It’s Somewhat, earns an honourable mention. Run of the day is awarded to the gallant Cosmic Cube, only 2nd-up with bright prospects for the preparation ahead.

And the flashing-light performance of 66/1 chance Obscura in the Ballieu casts grave aspersions on her rivals. The form from race 2 is the “debris of the day”.

@justideal

RAND - Saturday, 4 February 2017

Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit Weather: Overcast Track: Good 4 Updated 2/2 - 7:58am

Race 2

01:25pm HINCHINBROOK PLATE 1100m

 

1. VERANILLO (4) 56kg

T: John O'Shea (Agnes Banks/Hawkesbury) J: James Doyle

Decent win last prep sitting outside lead 3 wide putting pressure on, strongish late,

might have been complimented by the weak opposition

Only 1 794 trial, not flash time, alright style

Chance but probably will be unders

 

2. ACE HIGH (5) 56kg

T: David Payne (Rosehill) J: Adam Hyeronimus

Not a good enough trial to win this with these connections

 

 

3. TAKING AIM (6) 56kg

T: Peter and Paul Snowden (Randwick) J: Hugh Bowman

Very impressed by last start 2nd to Menari, sat outside lead and was strong late against

a good one ++

Schofield - Bowman +( ? recent )

Fitness edge on other chances

 

4. EDEN ROC (7) 56kg

T: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes (Rosehill) J: Tommy Berry

Stable and jockey momentum types and not seeing it at the moment

Has nice SP off some very nice trials

Chance but probably not going to get value

 

5. LIGHTZ (2) 56kg

T: Jim and Greg Lee (Randwick) J: Jason Collett

Has the best time of the runners in this race off the 23/1 trials but not

by as much as published.

How much upside?

Smokey

 

6. MOSSMAN GORGE (9) 56kg

T: Matthew Dale (Canberra) J: Not Notified

Smashed opposition at Canberra but the time not crash hot

It was a weird race, there's a possibility this horse's ability to run time

was hidden

Too many ? could entertain at a very long price

 

8. CUBA (3) 56kg

T: John P Thompson (Randwick) J: Tye Angland

Would want to see a lot of style and upside to entertain backing

a horse out of the 2yr trials on 23/1 in this race

Didn't see it

 

9. MOLTEN (8) 56kg

T: Peter and Paul Snowden (Randwick) J: Glyn Schofield

Same as 8

 

10. THE MAN (1) 56kg

T: John P Thompson (Randwick) J: Joshua Parr

Same as 8

 

11. EXCEEDS (12) 54kg

T: James Cummings (Randwick) J: Brenton Avdulla

Liked the win last start, has a fitness edge.

Will probably find a couple with more ability

 

12. GRASSLANDS (10) 54kg

T: Michael Freedman (Randwick) J: Tim Clark

Stable was lucky to get one on us last week

Hasn't shown enough

 

*Official times from 23/1 W FM trials are considerably out but didn't

result in any significant rating changes.

 

NO CLEAR STANDOUT. Could end up backing a few but WILL DEFINITELY

BE HAVING SOMETHING ON 3 TAKING AIM, probably e/w

Our keen panellist Gordo has combed the Randwick card for Saturday, and has discerned the following:

Race 1 – 2YR OLD 1100m

1. Taking Aim
   • Right Stable
   • Like the Jockey Change
   • Like the wide barrier, horse needs space
   • Last start, steadied of heels, looms like a good horse, then seemed to struggle with the tight turn at Gosford, think coming home to Randwick circuit will suit, when balanced in straight was strong late
2. Menari
   • Won both 900m trials impressively, but nothing impressive about times or style
3. Momentum to Win
   • Trials not good enough for this stable to win this race
4. Newburgh
   • ? Tricky stable, recent trial to prime interesting
5. Piracy
   • Flopped only start but had excuses
   • Trials indicate has ability
   • Most recent trail impressive an indicates to me has 2 covered (trialled on same day)

Race 2 – 1200m (78) (F&M)

1. Butterboom
   • Fifth start this prep, like the quick backup
   • Will be throwing everything at it to get a win this prep
   • Not my style of horse but has a chance in a strange race
2. Sangiovese
   • Stable in form, lightly raced – beat Machineguns Jubs last start but MJ should of won by the length of the straight, think that complimented it
   • 207 days off, 900m trial, 1000m race could stringboard of that platform, would need to and 1200?
3. Pienkna
   • Went look for something outside the obvious in this race, so some chance but preferably I would want better Syd and Bris form
4. Raiment
   • Probably a moral after interrogating opposition
   • Should have won last start against a horse that is flying (in her time)
   • Third up barrier two last start to barrier four now – looks good
   • Only question mark, still at 1200m but think it will suit and win anyway
5. Modha
   • Weds class horse with a swoopers chance
   • Form lines moderately franked (chosen prayer, improvement)
6. Thelittleracketeer
   • Lightly raced weight dropped (HAHA) think she’s reached her limit
7. Countess Marionov
   • Couple of nice runs last prep, roughies chance
8. Alaskan Wolf
   • Want long odds on a Weds not here

Race 3 – 3YR old 1200m (71)

1. Improvement
   • Won a week race last start
   • Is a winner but I think trainer has done a great job placing it
   • This race is too strong
2. Ebenos
   • Comes out of a weaker stuff, but has shown a bit of style this prep
   • Not for me
3. Henry the Createth
   • When this stables, horses trialled great (which this horse hasn’t) they still rarely win
   • Not for me
4. Trevioso
   • Can choose what he wants to do from barrier nine
   • I have an opinion of this horse from last prep, didn’t beat much at Gosford but won comfortably
   • Will be having something on
5. Echo Effect
   • Thousand metre trial in good time a positive
   • Has chance lightly raced I’ve not stamped it yet
6. **** Scratched ****
7. Ghostly
   • Great ride by gun to win last start
   • Didn’t beat much
8. Reach for Heaven
   • Last start last prep, great run in top form race
   • 2 trials over 800 & 1000m alright, didn’t jump well last one
9. Tornado of Souls
   • Has nothing done wrong with two trial wins and one race win an unknown quantity that might have ability but not proven yet
10. Pumpkin Pie
    • Lightly raced
    • Second to ECKSTIN last prep – decent trial
    • Don’t think it’s ready this start

Race 4 – 1400m Class 2 (H/Way)

1. Coglire
   • Has raced in proper city stuff
   • Second up after 2000m trials
   • Ready now for 1400m probably it’s best distance
   • Sat OSL in first up run over 1200m great setup
2. Fireman Sam Iam
   • Bushy – pen

 

3. Bold Beginning
   • Strange setup for 1400m
   • Bushy – pen
4. L’Elu
   • Lightly raced – third up over 1400m seems right
   • Out of proper Sat Race (?) but scrubbed to keep in touch
5. Van Halen
   • Exposed wrong stable, pen
6. Al Cubana
   • Decent highway form, reasonably lightly raced
   • Starting to think a spell and have a crack at a highway next prep
   • Few chances in this, so has a chance
7. Skin Deep
   • Bushy – pen
8. Plucky Star
   • Lightly raced so not a complete pen
9. Love None
   • Right setup for 1400m
   • Ignore last prep, different horse this prep
10. Zuzzudio
    • Running well this prep but exposed
11. Mar Nero
    • This kind of horse can’t miss the kick and win this
12. Mr Spin
    • Flocked only highway start
    • Probably bushy

Race 5 – 1600m open

No Comment really – saw Religify over 1600m at Randwick and wanted to find something else – nothing else fit my parameters

Race 6 – 2400m (83)

Distance race – don’t get involved often, 4 Thewayweare ticks a lot of boxes but Avdulla to Spriggs a negative

Race 7 – 1400m (83)

1. Invinzabeel
   1. Want to see the stable do something before I get involved
2. Dylans Roso
   1. Up for a long time – not for me
3. Esteban
   1. ? horse but I think later on

 

4. Sabino Speed
   1. Stable going well
   2. Fourth up after a long spell – seems right
   3. Ticks a few stat boxes
5. Careless
   1. Stable not up to first class yet
   2. Like the jockey change with last two starts competitive
6. Invincible Knight
   1. Lightly raced – good win ratio
   2. Has run against decent horses in its career and has done reasonably well
   3. Think it can springboard of last start win
7. Tower of Song
   1. Typical Snowden trials, just take note two trials over 1000m
   2. Probably primed but getting a bit tired of this horse
8. Disgraceful
   1. Typical stable flop last start – not for me
9. Metallic Crown
   1. No
10. **** Scratched ****
11. We’re Sure
    1. Not forgiving first up flop
12. Chose We Had
    1. Up to too long and low percentage style
13. Louie Sea Kay
    1. Negative jockey change I struggle to back horses on a Saturday that have been beaten by Isorich
14. Lancelot
    1. Pen
15. Arigold
    1. Beat rubbish at Cant last start but this is a weak race

Race 8 – 1100m (78)

1. Top Striker
   1. Going great guns this prep, form lines good
   2. Kind of horse that needs late crack and can be electric so barrier two not a problem
   3. Price is the deciding factor because luck is involved
2. Encostanati
   1. Lovely trial before first up run, had excuses
   2. Worth another chance at right odds
3. Our Renaissance
   1. Think it’s found its limit – 1100m Randwick wont suit
4. Awasita
   1. Similar to Top Striker but not as good
5. Last Witness
   1. No
6. **** Scratched ****

 

7. Schumacher
   1. Pen
8. Badajoz
   1. Pen
9. Quantrill
   1. Up too long – not good enough
10. Wonderbolt
    1. No
11. Magic Alibi
    1. Poor form lines
12. **** Scratched ****
13. Machinegun Jubs
    1. Lightly raced, has ability
    2. Certainly beaten last start
    3. Inside barrier but Collett Betting a positive
    4. Needs a little luck but great chance
14. Jetello
    1. None
15. Beau Tirage
    1. 1000m horse
16. Jetsonic
    1. Pen
17. Siliqua
    1. Pen

Race 9 – 1600m (78)

Too Many ? about Waller horses staying out

 

 

 

Track versus Office or Home Part 1

 

My first two months at the Track. What's more irritating 2000 gorgeous drunk girls or the Wife?

 

Probably debatable or variable this one but when you’re scared shitless of one and just irritated by the other maybe the track wins with this one.

 

Lambourne - Always at the track, handles the information overload perfectly and is an expert of snapping up the best odds just before the price goes off. Still gets harassed by the missus but only on the phone, so at least he can choose not to answer. Clearly the track is a positive.

 

Gordo - misses trained not to talk to be me between 12:00 and 5:30pm but sometimes the looks are just as irritating.

At the track chatting to people who are passionate about racing has been not only a great learning experience but also a pleasure. But Christ be prepared to be overloaded with bad luck stories. Track versus home probably even, I'm still a bit lost out there.

 

Now Glenn Pollett - always at the track, doesn't need to go to the gym, does about 20km at high pace running around the ring. Let’s put a FitBit on him, I think the distances and heart rate fluctuations could make an interesting PHD Study, how is he still alive?

He has a great knack of picking off the great early odds offered by the bookies on the outer.

Being a horse studier and assessor it’s imperative for him at the track.

As far as the missus is concerned she's sitting right next to him laptop open and working away. Is this a negative or positive? First thoughts seemed to tend towards the negative, worst of both worlds, but then you realise she is a great punter, form analyst and horse flesh assessor.

It seems to me the track definitely wins for Glenn

 

So, the score card so far is two and half to a half in favour of the track. In the next instalment - Betting Advantages and Disadvantages will be assessed

Hi Marc

I listened with interest re your statement concerning possible excessive watering of Rosehill last sat.

I have to disagree strongly that too much water was put on the track. In summer in particular tracks should start as a good 4. I have perspective on this as a punter, owners and trainers view. Most horses will not perform to their optimum level on hard tracks and will most likely come out of the race with sore joints, shins , jarring up etc restricting their longevity and ability to race into their campaign. I only have to see horses I own and others my wife trains to see the patch up work she does after horses run on rock hard tracks.You can also look at the stewards reports on days when the tracks are good 3s and you will see many trainers and jockeys explaining to the stewards the horse didn't stretch or perform as expected on the firm going. After all, comparing humans to horses would you prefer to walk/run exercise on a hard surface or a surface with some cushion or give in it. Last sat I'm guessing you're saying the inside was off due to the excessive watering. I'd say it was probably more the wear and tear from previous meetings rather than watering. At any rate you guys being punters would like to see good competitive racing with good size fields and horses performing at there best yet calling for tracks not to be watered actually produces the exact opposite .

Mark Waugh

To all those who've been asking about Todd, TopBetta, Dallas and the Punters Show, there is now some news to share.

Glenn and Marc have bitten the bullet and taken Todd Buckingham, TopBetta, 12Follow and Dallas Baker to the Supreme Court of NSW.

The initial hearing was last Monday, where Todd and his legal team turned up to do battle with Marc and Glenn's legal team.

The case continues with Glenn and Marc heading into mediation with Dallas and Todd on December 12.

We will keep you posted on the fate of the Punters Show and please leave your comments or queries below.

Rosehill tomorrow (26/11) features a premium prizemoney early season 2yo event where #11 Serena Bay is the lone filly.

I asked Paul Daily, of Ratings2Win, to interrogate his superlative Axis software with the question posed by Saturday's circumstance - Do early season 2yo Fillies perform above expectation against their male counterparts?

Horse Sex	Bets	Wins	SR	Collect	Avg	POT	Profit	Outs
C~G	366	40	10.9%	$160.00	$6.00	-16.96%	-$32.67	33
F	335	42	12.5%	$168.00	$6.60	-3.67%	-$6.41	30

 The above analysis considered Metropolitan 2yo mixed sex races in the last 2 years of data sample from 1st August to 31st December.

Clearly fillies have performed better than colts/geldings, both in strike rate and expectation.

I urge all those keen to pose any such questions to check out the ultimate in horse racing database software; Ratings2Win Axis. Click to download an extensive FREE info pack.

We asked Paul Daily of www.ratings2win.com.au to interrogate his fabulous database [highly recommended for serious students] for the burning question of the day.

Does Glyn Schofield getting on or off a horse represent a positive angle?

Click for Paul's detailed breakdown